Measures taken by governments and powerful national institutions to channel resources to the government that would not otherwise go there is known as financial repression. Historically, governments deployed financial repression to liquidate severe debt levels, like after World War II for example. Yet the command economy style of financial repression, not only offends liberal free market sensibilities but also impacts on the ability of investors to achieve real returns in affected asset classes.
While the term financial repression was only coined in the 1970s, and then used to describe emerging markets, today it is again back in vogue - this time applying more specifically to the developed world.
The last major period of financial repression, typified by significantly negative real interest rates, lasted from the end of World War II in 1945 until 1980 - a period of some 35 years.
Certainly, “given the length of time for which financial repression can be applied, the revival of the phenomenon is both important and alarming for investors in general” says Glenn Silverman, Chief Investment officer, Investment Solutions.
As such, “understanding the mechanisms of financial repression, as well as how to successfully manage ones investments in an age of financial repression, will be increasingly important going forward" adds Silverman.
Ways that governments and their related national institutions employ financial repression include:
- Taxes - a necessary and very evident 'evil'. Taxes can, however, become repressive when very extreme in either quantum (rate), and/or extent (breadth);
- Exchange controls – restricting flows of capital, by captive locals, to offshore destinations;
- Rent controls – the state artificially sets a maximum price for property rentals;
- Prescribed assets – for example, pension funds and financial institutions in southern Europe are increasingly compelled, by law, to purchase bonds of the state that they are resident in, irrespective of whether they would wish to or not;
- Monetary policy – using inflation or negative interest rates e.g. ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policies), to erode debt, punishing savers and rewarding borrowers;
- Other possible examples might include quantitative easing, Basel 3, LTROs (Long Term Refinancing Operations), and the like;
- National industrial policy and red tape can also be considered forms of financial repression when so extreme that they affect normal capital flows or business decisions.
Modern democracy in the West has become an auction, where the person or party chosen is typically the one offering more goodies to the electorate. In many countries these promises have become too large and are, quite simply, un-payable.
"This is what we term the crisis of the welfare state, with Europe in particular, a prime culprit. In addition, in too many countries governments have simply become too large a proportion of the economy. This is not healthy” says Silverman.
Studies show that an optimal level of government involvement in an economy, unadjusted for differences in quality or delivery, is around 25%. Countries that exceed this by a large margin, with France for example now at over 50%, have a real problem, “as the level of government involvement becomes larger than the productive tax base that exists to support that government. This is clearly unsustainable over the long term” says Silverman.
Default is not an impossibility either. Studies by Reinhardt & Rogoff show that since the 1800s, at any one time, between 5% and 45% of all countries are either in default or are re-structuring their debt. This proves that “even governments are not immune to the laws of economics” says Silverman. With US government debt currently at $16.3trn (very close to the debt ceiling level), and growing by almost $4bn per day, more measures and policies designed to delay default, or kick the can down the road can be expected. “Even if the can is now becoming too heavy to kick very far” adds Silverman.
In the meantime, financial repression in various guises is set to become the reality for years to come.
Yet, since there have been extended periods of financial repression in the twentieth century, “history has taught us a few survival tips” says Silverman.
Firstly, intellectual skills and the industries and products they spawn are safer havens, because they are mobile. It is far easier for governments to control fixed assets, like mines and mineral resources, making them ever-more risky assets in an age of financial repression.
Secondly, spreading investments over several jurisdictions is important. Not only does this reduce exposure to a single repressive jurisdiction, but in an era of financial repression certain jurisdictions will be less restrictive than others. Less restrictive jurisdictions will tend to attract investment and show growth.
Thirdly, even during lengthy periods of financial repression there are booms (up cycles) and busts. Opportunities for profit exist for those who are nimble. Generally the rule here is to avoid assets that depend on confidence, “like fiat currency (cash) and government bonds, with a preferred focus on assets with yield, growth and quality/solvency” explains Silverman. These would include equities, property, precious metals, and industrial, manufacturing and technology businesses. “There may be advantages to being in the unlisted components of these too, like unlisted property for example, as these may be less susceptible to the volatility and de-rating risks that a period of financial repression may entail” adds Silverman.
Finally, within equities, two areas stand out as offering opportunity within a financially repressive environment, namely; emerging market equities with their better valuations and economic fundamentals (lower debt, more growth, younger populations etc), as well as those quality equity counters capable of producing a growing dividend steam.
In short, “in periods of financial repression when yields are very low or even negative, companies that can produce a growing dividend have typically been well rewarded. Now is no exception” says Silverman.
As such, periods of financial repression require a more active rather than passive investment approach, with more flexible asset allocation a huge benefit, as well as a focus on hard assets. As such, it is important that investors understand the environment that faces them, and adjust their thinking, portfolios and strategies to manage many of the threats increasingly evident in this post financial crisis world order.